Generally, an arena test consists of the detonation of a warhead to propel fragments that then become embedded in the arena walls, accompanied by a gathering of the data associated with those embedded fragments.
The rough estimation of warhead fragmentation performance has been accomplished through the application of the basic theories of Taylor, Mott, Gurney, and Shapiro. More specifically, in the past, a legacy warhead evaluation process (“legacy process”) has been used to roughly predict warhead performance. The Taylor, Mott, Gurney, and Shapiro theories were applied using warhead physical characteristics and dimensions. The first applied theory was that of Taylor, which is used to determine a Taylor angle. A Taylor angle describes the fragmentation ejection angle for a limiting deflection of a plane detonation wave using a warhead model that approximates a long right cylinder model. The next applied theory was that of Mott. Mott uses a weight scaling equation to determine an average fragment weight. The next theory was that of Gurney. The Gurney equation predicts a fragment velocity. The next applied theory was that of Shapiro. Shapiro was used to determine a Shapiro angle, which provides a generalized fragment ejection angle based on a non-plane detonation wave for a general cylinder model. The theories are then applied to each of the discrete warhead model case segments as defined for a warhead model. The warhead model is defined geometrically and then divided into theoretical slices, where each slice is a discrete warhead model case segment.
For each discrete warhead model case segment the “legacy” theories applied above produced an average fragment weight, an average fragment velocity, an average fragment direction, and a fragment count. Thus, three numbers characterized the fragmentation for each warhead model case segment. The results for each discrete warhead model case segment were then averaged, and an average performance model for a warhead was produced. The “legacy” process does not model the true nature of the warhead detonation because the true nature of a warhead fragmentation distribution is continuous in weight, velocity, and direction, and not discrete. Further, the “legacy” process, and other prior processes, did not include means for modeling end fragments. The “legacy” process also did not include a Monte-Carlo model round-to-round variability because the legacy process did not include the effects of continuous distributions nor did it include randomness.